“If our species is to stagger
through another millennium, we need to
get better at thinking about how we
think—and conducting high-stakes debates
more intelligently. This book lays out, with
superb clarity, the path forward.”
—
PHILIP E. TETLOCK
, author of
Superforecasting
“Third Millennium Thinking
offers a road map for making more
effective decisions in an increasingly
complex and noisy world. If you could
only read one book about how to think
more clearly, make it this one.”
—
ANNIE DUKE
, author of
Thinking in
Bets
?
!
“A physicist, a philosopher,
and a psychologist walk into a book, and
mix an inviting cocktail about how to
think through big problems and make
effective decisions in a Third Millennium
age of overwhelming, complex, and
contradictory information. A must-read
for anyone who needs to make expert
judgments without being experts
themselves.”
—
DAVID DUNNING
, professor of
psychology at the University of Michigan
and discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger
Effect
“A Nobel laureate physicist, an
influential philosopher, and an expert on
legal psychology reveal how you can use
the tools of science in everyday life. In a
world filled with uncertainty and fractured
by polarization, this guide to clear
thinking couldn’t come at a better time.”
—
ADAM GRANT
, author of
Think Again
and
Hidden Potential
“Marvelous.”
—
LEONARD MLODINOW
, author of
Subliminal
“ A wonderful book for anyone
interested in how best to navigate our
complex world of information overload.
Engagingly and informatively, it emphasizes
how processes used in the practice of
science can provide widely applicable tools
for approaching individual and collective
decision-making. A truly valuable resource
for taking on the challenges facing our
species and the planet.”
—
ELIZABETH BLACKBURN
, PhD, Nobel
Prize winner and coauthor of
The Telomere
Effec
t
“A model of clear thinking and a
terrific discussion of how to use logic and
evidence to solve the hardest problems. This
might just be the cure for what ails us.”
—
CASS R. SUNSTEIN
, Robert Walmsley
University Professor, Harvard University, and
author of
Decisions about Decisions
a philosopher,
walk
into
a book...
... and present the tools and
frameworks that scientists
have developed to
keep from fooling
themselves, to understand
the world, and
to make decisions.
?
!
Amazon
Barnes
& Noble
Independent
Large
Orders
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JOHN CAMPBELL is a professor of philosophy at the
University of California, Berkeley. He has held
Guggenheim and NEH Fellowships and served as
President of the European Society for Philosophy and
Psychology.
ROBERT MacCOUN is a social psychologist, a
professor of law at Stanford University, and a senior
fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute. He received
the 2019 James McKeen Cattell Award for lifetime
achievement from the Association for Psychological
Science
SAUL PERLMUTTER is a 2011 Nobel Laureate,
sharing the prize in physics for the discovery of the
accelerating expansion of the universe. He is a
professor of physics at the University of California,
Berkeley, and a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory.
IMAGE CREDITS: AUTHOR PHOTOGRAPHS: JON SCHAINKER (SAUL PERLMUTTER); RORY CAMPBELL (JOHN CAMPBELL); AUDREY
Mac
COUN (ROBERT
MacCOUN); JACKET DESIGN BY KEITH HAYES; JACKET ART © SHUTTERSTOCK IMAGES; BLANK WHITE BOOK
COVER: IMAGE BY VECTONAUTA ON FREEPIK; DICE IMAGE, ICON DESIGN, AND WEBSITE BY NOA PERLMUTTER
and a
psychologist
Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on
how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve
problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’
tricks of the trade.
In our deluge of information, it's getting harder and harder to
distinguish the revelatory from the contradictory. How do we
make health decisions in the face of conflicting medical
advice? Does that article on GMOs even show what the
authors claim? How can we navigate the next Thanksgiving
discussion with our in-laws, who follow completely different
experts on climate?
In Third Millennium Thinking, a physicist, a psychologist, and
a philosopher introduce readers to the tools and frameworks
that scientists have developed to keep from fooling
themselves, to understand the world, and to make decisions.
We can all borrow these trust-building techniques to tackle
problems both big and small.
Readers will learn:
How to achieve a ground-level understanding
of the facts of the modern world
How to chart a course through
a profusion of possibilities
How to work together to take on the
challenges we face today
And much more
Using provocative thought exercises, jargon-free language, and
vivid illustrations drawn from history, daily life, and scientists’
insider stories, Third Millennium Thinking offers a novel
approach for readers to make sense of the nonsense.
Related Educational Links
THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING
A physicist,
Nobel Prize Outreach High School Course:
Scientific Thinking for All: A Toolkit
https://www.nobelprize.org/scientific-
thinking-for-all/
Un
i
ver
s
ity Cour
s
e:
Sen
s
e and Sen
s
ibility and Scienc
e
http
s
://
s
en
s
esen
s
ibility
s
cience.berkele
y
.edu
/